It’s All About the Margins
by Rick Comfort
For the last 10 months the pundits, analysts, and media have been bantering and chiding over what happened to the Democrats in the 2024 Presidential election. It’s pretty simple, it is all about the “margins” and who captured the fancy of those in the margins.
What we know.
About 5 million folks who voted in the 2020 election stayed home and most of those votes would have gone to the Democrats. We also know that the Dems lost the popular vote by only 1.5%, but lost the State’s voting 31-19. That means Republicans captured 62% of the states and the Electoral vote by 312 to 226. Republicans captured 58% of those votes.
When you look at all those numbers, it looks like the Dems got a whipping, BUT they didn’t! When you take a closer look it’s all about the “margins”, those who are swing voters who can change the outcome. When only 63% of eligible voters turn out, those margin or swing voters have a larger impact on who wins.
Let’s start with Wisconsin. Trump won 10 Electoral votes by less than 30,000 votes. IF the Dems spent more time on the swing voters they may have received the lions share of the 45,000 third party votes and thus win the State and its 10 Electoral votes. Another issue is the “winner take all” of the Electoral votes. If the votes were awarded proportionately, it would been 5 & 5.
Now look at Michigan. Trump won 15 Electoral votes by 1.4%, or 80,000 votes. BUT there were approximately 100,000 third party votes. Who knows why they voted for a third party, but it if Dems courted those swing voters they may have won Michigan. Again, if Electoral votes were proportional, it would have been 8 to 7.
Pennsylvania is next. Pretty much the same story. Trump won PA by 1.7%, approximately 120,000 votes with third party candidates receiving 70,000 votes. The unique situation in PA is Philadelphia, the Democrat’s stronghold, where there are approximately 900,000 registered Democrats — but only approximately 665,000 voted! That was the difference between winning and losing Pennsylvania and it’s 19 Electoral votes.
The winner takes all Electoral votes looks bad for Dems but it really wasn’t.
Arizona and Nevada are mirrors of these states’ results. The swing or margin voters made the difference.
Just those three States, WI, MI and PA were 44 Electoral votes lost and those would have given Dems the White House with 270 Electoral votes — and saved America from the catastrophe it is now experiencing.
Don’t Stay Home!
That’s why it is extremely important to “get out the vote” on EVERY election! As we are now seeing, elections can have catastrophic impact on our way of life.
Let’s not make the same mistake in 2026. Democrats must take back Congress or we’ll lose our Democracy!
Rick is a JFK Democrat who worked on Kennedy’s campaign as a teenager and was a member of the Young Democrats of NJ. Upon graduating from Rider University, he embarked on a communications career in the automobile industry. Retired, he now lives in South Carolina and occasionally contributes to Lean to the Left.